Tuesday, August 12, 2025

Your Debit Card Doesn’t Hold Your Money

 

Your Debit Card Doesn’t Hold Your Money — Neither Did the Vault in 1850, or Your Deposit Account Today

Among millennials and Gen Z, there’s a surprisingly common belief:

“When my paycheck is deposited, the bank downloads my money to my debit card.”

Nice story. Completely wrong. Your debit card holds nothing. It’s a plastic permission slip to tell your bank to shuffle numbers in its ledger.

When you swipe, tap, or click, no money moves from your card to the merchant. Your bank simply updates its liabilities — reducing the amount it owes you, and increasing what it owes to someone else’s bank. The actual legal tender stays where it’s always been: under the bank’s control.

Even prepaid cards, mobile wallets, and gift cards don’t “store” balances. They’re credentials pointing to an account somewhere in the issuer’s system. The device in your hand has no more money in it than your TV remote has “channels” inside it.


The Same Old Mental Mistake

This isn’t a 21st-century glitch. It’s the same sleight of mind that transformed the monetary system in the 19th century.

  1. The Vault Illusion
    In 1850, depositors imagined their coins or notes sat in the bank’s vault waiting for retrieval.

  2. The Ledger Swap
    Banks realized customers would accept claims on money instead of money itself. Their liabilities — banknotes, checks, ledger balances — began circulating as payment.

  3. The Mental Collapse
    The claim became mentally interchangeable with the money. Deposits were no longer seen as IOUs — they were “money” in everyday thought.

  4. The Official Blessing
    Governments, payment systems, and clearinghouses enshrined this in law and practice. Banks could now create deposit balances far in excess of legal tender reserves — and no one noticed.


The Austrian Blind Spot

Austrians love to warn about credit expansion distorting interest rates and causing business cycles. And they’re right to. But here’s the irony: Ludwig von Mises himself — in The Theory of Money and Credit — drew a bright red line between money and a claim on money.

Mises wrote:

“Fiduciary media are claims to money, payable on demand, which are not covered by money in the reserve of the issuer.”
The Theory of Money and Credit, Part III, Ch. 17

That’s as clear as it gets: a bank deposit is not money — it’s a claim to money, and if it isn’t backed by money in reserve, it’s fiduciary media.

Yet, many modern Austrians casually lump those very claims into their “money supply” measures without qualification, treating fiduciary media as if it were money proper. The founder of their own tradition explicitly warned against this conflation, but the distinction gets lost in practice.

If you ignore that difference, you miss the real mechanism that makes credit expansion possible in the first place. The business cycle doesn’t just come from “too much credit” — it comes from the public’s willingness to treat bank promises as payment, allowing banks to pyramid liabilities on a narrow base of legal tender.


Why This Matters

The belief that “money” lives on your debit card is the same mental shortcut that let bank liabilities become “money” a century ago. It erases the middleman in people’s minds, hides the credit-creation process from scrutiny, and blinds the public to the fact that what they hold is a promise, not payment.

Once the public stops drawing that line, banks are free to expand credit indefinitely. They can create deposits — promises to pay — without the actual dollars to back them, because almost no one ever asks for the real thing.


Bottom line:
Your debit card doesn’t hold your money. Neither did the vault in 1850. Neither does your deposit account today. And until people — Austrians included — stop conflating a claim with the thing itself, credit will keep expanding unchecked, and the cycle will keep repeating.

Sunday, August 10, 2025

Money Is Property. Full Stop.

 

🧨 Money Is Property. Full Stop.

The confusion between money and credit isn’t a minor academic slip—it’s a foundational error that distorts how we understand banking, central banking, and monetary policy. It’s time to stop tolerating it.

Let’s be clear: money is not a promise. It is not a liability. It is not a representation. Money is owned property—the asset itself. Anything less is credit, and credit is not money.

🧱 The Institutional Reality

In the architecture of modern finance, central bank reserves and bank deposits are denominated in money, but they are not money. They are claims—liabilities issued by institutions. Their function depends entirely on the credibility of those institutions to honor conversion. That credibility is not intrinsic to the instrument; it’s external and contingent.

  • Reserves are central bank liabilities to depository institutions.

  • Deposits are commercial bank liabilities to depositors.

  • Neither is money. Both are promises.

The operational choreography of monetary systems makes this distinction unavoidable. Reserves settle interbank obligations. Deposits settle retail transactions. But in both cases, what’s being transferred is a claim, not the asset itself.

🔥 The Austrian Blind Spot

Ironically, many Austrian economists—self-styled defenders of “sound money”—perpetuate this error. They rail against fiat currency and fractional reserve banking, yet treat bank deposits and central bank reserves as if they were money. This contradiction undermines their entire critique.

If you define money as a liability, you’ve already conceded the institutional ground. You’ve accepted that money is a promise, not property. That’s not sound. That’s confused.

🧠 Philosophical Precision

Money is the second form of owned property—after labor—that can be transferred without institutional mediation. It is not a representation of value. It is the thing of value. It ends obligations. It does not begin them.

Credit begins obligations. It is a forward-looking claim. Money is backward-looking compensation. To conflate the two is to erase the boundary between ownership and obligation.

🧭 The Operational Consequence

When the Federal Reserve expands its balance sheet, it issues reserves. These are liabilities. They do not enter the public economy. They do not settle private obligations. They are not “money printing.” They are credit expansion within a closed institutional loop.

Calling reserves “money” is not just wrong—it’s operationally incoherent.

✅ The Correct Frame

Let’s draw the line with institutional clarity:

InstrumentNatureFunctionIs It Money?
Physical currencyOwned assetFinal settlement✅ Yes
Central bank reservesLiabilityInterbank settlement❌ No
Bank depositsLiabilityRetail transaction medium❌ No
Treasury securitiesAssetCollateral/store of value❌ No

Money is the owned asset that ends the transaction. Everything else is a promise that depends on institutional credibility.

🧨 Final Word

If we want to understand monetary systems, we must stop mislabeling liabilities as assets. We must stop calling promises “money.” And we must stop pretending that institutional credit is equivalent to owned property.

Money is property. Not promise. Not representation. Not liability.

Anything else is a category error—and it’s time we stopped making it.

Thursday, July 31, 2025

The Fed’s Real Tool for Taming Inflation

 The Fed’s Real Tool for Taming Inflation: Why the FFR Rules and QT Falls Flat

By Dwain Dibley and Grok, June 16, 2025
The Federal Reserve’s toolkit for managing inflation is often misunderstood, with tools like quantitative tightening (QT), runoffs, and Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreements (ON RRP) stealing the spotlight. But they’re all noise, no signal. Inflation is rooted in deposit accounts fueling consumer spending, and the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) is the Fed’s only effective weapon. Let’s break it down, exploring why the FFR matters, why “fake QT” flops, and how reserves hold their value as a claim on Fed assets.
Inflation and Deposits: Where the Action Is
Inflation (~3% in 2025, CPI estimates, down from ~8% in 2022) is driven by spending from deposit accounts—checking and savings that make up the money supply (M2, ~$21 trillion, Fed data). Loans create deposits: a $1 million business loan credits the borrower’s account, boosting M2 and spending power, which can fuel inflation. Controlling loan growth is the key to taming inflation, and that’s where the FFR comes in.
The FFR: The Fed’s Heavy Hitter
The FFR (~4.5–4.75% in 2025) is the rate banks charge for overnight reserve loans—bank assets held at the Fed (12 USC 342). Raising the FFR tightens credit, hitting inflation through three channels:
  1. Retarding Loan Growth: Higher FFR pushes up loan rates (mortgages 6–7%, auto loans ~5–8%). Borrowing slows, reducing deposit creation. Loan growth fell ~2–3% annually (2022–2025, Fed data), keeping M2 flat ($21 trillion).
  2. Causing Defaults: Higher rates strain borrowers. A variable-rate mortgage jumping from 4% to 7% can lead to defaults (~1–2% for consumer loans, 2023–2025), forcing banks to tighten credit.
  3. Increasing Loan Paybacks: Borrowers repay loans early to avoid high interest (up ~5–10% for commercial loans, 2023–2025), shrinking deposits and spending power.
Result? Inflation cooled to ~3% by 2025, thanks to FFR hikes, not other Fed tools that miss the mark.
“Fake QT”: Why Runoffs and ON RRP Don’t Move the Needle
The Fed’s balance sheet—6.5 trillion in assets (Treasuries ~$4.2 trillion, MBS ~$2.1 trillion) backing ~$5.3 trillion in liabilities (reserves ~$3 trillion, FRNs ~$2.3 trillion, H.4.1)—is central to monetary debates. QT (2022–2025) aimed to shrink it by ~$1.5 trillion via runoffs and ON RRP, but these measures, dubbed “fake QT,” had no impact on reserves, the Treasury General Account (TGA), or inflation. Here’s why.
Runoffs: No Effect on Reserves or TGA
Runoffs let Treasuries/MBS mature without reinvesting, up to caps ($60 billion/month Treasuries, ~$35 billion/month MBS). A $1 billion Treasury maturity reduces SOMA assets and a liability (e.g., ON RRP), but reserves ($3 trillion, down $0.2 trillion, 2022–2025) and TGA ($0.8 trillion) stay stable. Why?
  • Treasury Operations: The Treasury funds maturities via new debt issuance (reserves redistribute via Fedwire, no net loss) or tax/spending flows, not TGA drawdowns. There’s no correlation with TGA decreases (~$0.7–$1.2 trillion range, 2022–2025, H.4.1).
  • Bank Discretion: Banks control reserves (their property, 12 USC 342), holding them for Fedwire, FRN acquisition (12 USC 412), or liquidity (IORB ~4.65%). They avoid reverse open market operations (OMO) or offset via Fed loans, as seen post-2008 QE.
  • No M2 Impact: Stable reserves mean no M2 contraction (~$21 trillion), so runoffs don’t curb inflation.
ON RRP: Non-Bank Funds, No Reserve Impact
ON RRP lets non-banks (e.g., money market funds) lend cash to the Fed overnight, secured by Treasuries (4.55% rate). Balances fell from ~$2 trillion to ~$0.4 trillion (2022–2025, H.4.1), but reserves ($3 trillion) didn’t budge. Why?
  • Non-Bank Participants: ~90% of ON RRP users are non-banks (MMFs), not reserve holders. MMFs use investor funds (shareholder cash), not customer account debits or reserves. A $1 billion ON RRP investment transfers MMF cash via bank reserves (Fedwire), but reserves are replenished by system flows (e.g., Treasury spending).
  • Minimal Reserve Impact: ON RRP absorbs non-bank liquidity, not reserves, during QT.
  • No Inflation Effect: MMF funds seeking ROI don’t drive spending, so ON RRP’s decline didn’t affect inflation (~3%, 2025).
TGA and Reserves: No Connection Whatsoever
The Treasury General Account (TGA, $0.8 trillion, H.4.1) is the Treasury’s account at the Fed, holding funds from taxes, debt issuance, and used for spending. Reserves ($3 trillion, H.4.1) are bank-owned assets (12 USC 342) used for Fedwire settlements, FRN acquisition, or liquidity (earning IORB 4.65%). There’s no connection between TGA and reserves. Tax collections or Treasury spending don’t affect reserve balances, as they operate independently. TGA fluctuates ($0.7–$1.2 trillion, 2022–2025, H.4.1) with fiscal policy, while reserves stay stable due to banks’ discretion—holding reserves for operational needs or avoiding reserve-draining actions like reverse OMO. This disconnect reinforces that neither TGA nor reserves drive inflation (M2, ~$21 trillion), leaving the FFR as the Fed’s only real lever.
Reserves: A Direct Claim on Fed Assets
Reserves aren’t “magic beans” or faith-based—they’re a category of bank assets (12 USC 342) with “moneyness” as a direct claim on the Fed’s assets (H.4.1). Banks use reserves for:
  • Fedwire Settlements: Transferring ~$1 trillion daily to settle interbank debts.
  • FRN Acquisition: Debiting reserves for cash (12 USC 412, 31 USC 5103).
  • Open Market Operations (OMO): Buying Fed-held Treasuries, like Bank A using $1 million in reserves for a $1 million Treasury (H.4.1).
The 1:1 backing ($6.5 trillion assets vs. ~$5.3 trillion liabilities, H.4.1) ensures reserves’ value, not Fed policies like runoffs/ON RRP. Banks’ discretion—holding reserves, avoiding OMO sales—keeps reserves stable ($3 trillion), as seen post-2008 QE and during “fake QT.” While some argue the claim is indirect (no legal redemption right, 12 USC 342, 347, 412), the practical outcome—reserves acquiring “hard assets” like Treasuries—backs the direct claim view.
Why FFR Wins
Runoffs, ON RRP, and TGA are sideshows. Inflation lives in deposit accounts (M2, $21 trillion), and only the FFR (4.5–4.75%) can slow loan-driven deposit growth, cause defaults, and spur paybacks. Inflation fell from ~8% (2022) to ~3% (2025) due to FFR hikes, not “fake QT.” Reserves’ value, tied to Fed assets (H.4.1), remains unshaken, proving banks—not the Fed—call the shots with their property (12 USC 342).

Blog Archive

Your Debit Card Doesn’t Hold Your Money

  Your Debit Card Doesn’t Hold Your Money — Neither Did the Vault in 1850, or Your Deposit Account Today Among millennials and Gen Z, there...